【本期受訪人：《芯片戰(zhàn)爭》作者，塔夫茨大學(xué)弗萊徹學(xué)院國際歷史副教授克里斯·米勒（Chris Miller）】
集微訪談：Miller先生你好，很高興能有機(jī)會就美國“芯片法案”實施的新進(jìn)展和你做一次交流。上個月，美國商務(wù)部表示，將對美國半導(dǎo)體行業(yè)的供應(yīng)鏈和國防工業(yè)展開調(diào)查，以減少所謂“中國構(gòu)成的國家安全風(fēng)險”。美方發(fā)起的這項調(diào)查，將重點關(guān)注美國關(guān)鍵行業(yè)對中國制造的傳統(tǒng)芯片的使用與采購情況，以評估其半導(dǎo)體供應(yīng)鏈對中國芯片的依賴程度。那么，28nm以上的成熟制程的芯片，會不會成為未來中美半導(dǎo)體之爭另一塊前沿陣地？
Chris Miller:我不認(rèn)為美國商務(wù)部的供應(yīng)鏈審查和數(shù)據(jù)收集的行動意味著他們將為成熟芯片生產(chǎn)商提供更多資金。
《芯片法案》已經(jīng)打算分配一些資金用于成熟的節(jié)點生產(chǎn)。我認(rèn)為供應(yīng)鏈審查是研究成熟節(jié)點市場，了解和研判中國成熟節(jié)點半導(dǎo)體產(chǎn)能大幅擴(kuò)張將如何影響市場的幾個步驟中的第一步。美國、歐盟和日本都非常擔(dān)心中國對成熟節(jié)點建設(shè)的補(bǔ)貼會對全球半導(dǎo)體市場造成負(fù)面影響。不少業(yè)內(nèi)人士擔(dān)心成熟節(jié)點產(chǎn)能過剩。盡管如此，中國企業(yè)仍在迅速擴(kuò)大工廠建設(shè)，這可能會加劇這一問題，我認(rèn)為這很可能是中國與發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體未來的貿(mào)易爭端的前奏。
20nm-45nm成熟工藝芯片（不含存儲），美國高度依賴海外市場（數(shù)據(jù)來源：SEMI）
集微訪談：《芯片法案》目前對企業(yè)方向已經(jīng)有兩筆款項落地，分別給了軍工芯片承包商 BAE Systems和MCU大型供應(yīng)商Microchip Technology。不過劃撥的金額都不大，分別是3500萬美元和1.62億美元。從中我們能看出什么風(fēng)向？
Chris Miller:前兩筆贈款相對較小，因為完成小交易比大交易更容易，因此也更快。更大的贈款可能會在今年晚些時候發(fā)放。 但我確實認(rèn)為，兩筆最初的撥款表明，《芯片法案》將部分側(cè)重于支持美國國防工業(yè)基地的需求以及產(chǎn)品廣泛用于民用制造基地的MCU生產(chǎn)商。
集微訪談：負(fù)責(zé)“芯片法案”撥款的重要人物之一是美國參議院撥款小組委員會主席珍妮·沙欣 (Jeanne Shaheen) ，她也是來自新罕布什爾州的美國資深參議員，BAE的一個重要的制造基地，微電子中心 (MEC) 位于新罕布什爾州Nashua。我們是否可以得出結(jié)論，她動用了個人政治資源促成了這筆款項的落地？
Chris Miller：事情不是這樣的。評估撥款的團(tuán)隊完全不受國會直接政治壓力的影響。國會會施加一些壓力，但公司必須提交詳細(xì)的資金申請計劃，這些申請要經(jīng)過專業(yè)人士的審查，并且還要經(jīng)過公司和政府之間的廣泛談判。BAE獲得資助主要是因為其在軍事系統(tǒng)生產(chǎn)方面的作用。
集微訪談：“芯片法案”第二筆面向企業(yè)的重大撥款給了Microchip，這也是俄勒岡企業(yè)拿到的第一筆重要撥款。與加州、得州、紐約州等傳統(tǒng)科技中心州相比，俄勒岡州在稅收政策、勞動力和建筑成本方面有何優(yōu)勢？
Chris Miller:俄勒岡州是美國芯片制造的主要地點。例如，英特爾在那里擁有大量制造基地和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施，Microchip在俄勒岡州也設(shè)有工廠。（校對/朱秩磊）
（附 英文版郵件采訪）
ijiwei Talk：Department of Commerce is taking proactive measures to assess the U.S. semiconductor supply chain by collecting data from U.S. companies on the sourcing of their legacy chips.Does this indicate Commerce Department will distribute more funds to legacy chips fabs instead of cutting edge manufacturers?Based on the announcement of Department of Commerce last December, will the mature-nodes semiconductor be the new US-Sino high tech battle field from now on?
Chris Miller: I don't think the supply chain review and data collection means that the Commerce Department will give more funds to legacy producers. The Chips Act already intended to allocate some funds to mature node production. I think the supply chain review is the first of what will be several steps to study the mature node market and understand how the vast expansion in China's production capacity for mature node semiconductors will impact the market. In Washington as well as in Brussels and Tokyo there is deep concern that China's subsidies for mature node construction will distort the market. Many industry players worry about overcapacity in mature nodes. Chinese firms are nevertheless rapidly expanding factory construction, which could exacerbate this issue. I think this is likely to be a future trade dispute between China and advanced economies.
ijiwei Talk：Biden administration chooses BAE Systems for first Chips Act grant, and its second grant under a new program would help Microchip Technology. Could we summarize some similarities or resemblances between these two grants ( military related, relatively small award, and....)?
Chris Miller: I think the first two grants were relatively small because it is easier -- and thus faster -- to finish small deals rather than big ones. The bigger grants will likely come later this year. But I do think the two initial grants show that the Chips Act will focus in part on supporting US defense industrial base needs as well as microcontroller producers whose products are used widely in the civilian manufacturing base.
ijiwei Talk：Jeanne Shaheen, chair of the U.S. Senate Appropriations Subcommittee that funds the Department of Commerce, is also the senior United States senator from New Hampshire, and BAE Systems’ Microelectronics Center (MEC) is in Nashua,New Hampshire. Could we conclude, she is the one who facilitates this deal?
Chris Miller:No, that's not how it works. The team assessing grants is fairly insulated from direct political pressure from Congress. There will be some Congressional pressure, but companies have to submit detailed applications for funds that are vetted by professionals and involve extensive negotiations between companies and the government. The fact that BAE got a grant is primarily due to its role in producing for military systems.
ijiwei Talk：As for Microchip, It’s the second major grant under the $52 billion CHIPS Act legislation Congress approved in 2022 and the first to an Oregon manufacturer. Comparing to the traditional tech-hub states such as California, Texas, New York, what’ the advantage of Oregon, regarding tax policies, labor forces and building costs?
Chris Miller: Oregon is a major location for chipmaking in the US. Intel has substantial facilities there, for example. Microchip is building there because it already has facilities in Oregon.
