在往期的集微訪談欄目中，愛集微有幸采訪了Silicon Valley Research Institute（SVRI）創(chuàng)始人兼董事總經(jīng)理Eric Bouche。集微訪談就關(guān)于行業(yè)發(fā)展、市場(chǎng)供需周期、行業(yè)人才短缺以及AI發(fā)展前景等一系列問題，收到了十分有啟發(fā)的答復(fù)。
問：行業(yè)目前的主旋律是什么？
答：一個(gè)重要的主題是行業(yè)的復(fù)蘇，在疫情期間，我們經(jīng)歷了短缺的情況。然而，在疫情后，我們觀察到了半導(dǎo)體行業(yè)發(fā)展減速和供過于求的情況，現(xiàn)在我們終于開始從這一階段中復(fù)蘇起來。行業(yè)正在逐漸恢復(fù)增長(zhǎng)。然而，使得這一復(fù)蘇與眾不同的是大量的政府干預(yù)和補(bǔ)貼。據(jù)我所知，各國(guó)政府提供的補(bǔ)貼總額已經(jīng)達(dá)到了數(shù)萬億美元，這是相當(dāng)驚人的數(shù)字。因此，預(yù)計(jì)這一復(fù)蘇將伴隨著許多偏離正常狀態(tài)的情況。
問：您談到半成品行業(yè)復(fù)蘇，但行業(yè)狀況如何？
答：這是一個(gè)很好的問題，當(dāng)我們談?wù)?/span>（半導(dǎo)體）行業(yè)時(shí)，通常會(huì)將所有領(lǐng)域歸到一起當(dāng)作一個(gè)大行業(yè)討論行業(yè)動(dòng)態(tài)。但這么做并不準(zhǔn)確。實(shí)際上，如果你看一下晶圓廠、邏輯芯片、DRAM、3D NAND閃存等方面，復(fù)蘇的情況是各不相同的。所以我傾向于說我們正在復(fù)蘇，但這些領(lǐng)域的復(fù)蘇程度各不相同。我認(rèn)為晶圓廠，可能還有邏輯芯片是前面的領(lǐng)頭羊，通常情況就是這樣。這樣說是有充分的理由的。我認(rèn)為DRAM和3D NAND在價(jià)格曲線的底部勉強(qiáng)趨于平穩(wěn)。而且，我們的一些客戶是存儲(chǔ)制造商，他們對(duì)目前的情況還不滿意。我們知道它遲早會(huì)恢復(fù)，但現(xiàn)在還沒完全到達(dá)能稱得上恢復(fù)的水平。
同時(shí)雖然我前面已經(jīng)提到我們已經(jīng)走出了供不應(yīng)求的狀態(tài)，但這并不完全正確。我知道總會(huì)有人告訴我我們?nèi)匀惶幱诙倘睜顟B(tài)。有一些領(lǐng)域仍然存在短缺，我想提到其中一個(gè)領(lǐng)域，即用于電動(dòng)汽車的功率SiC。這實(shí)際上是一個(gè)非常好的商機(jī)，同時(shí)也是技術(shù)挑戰(zhàn)。當(dāng)埃隆·馬斯克決定從IGBT轉(zhuǎn)向SiC功率模塊時(shí)，改變了整個(gè)行業(yè)，而該行業(yè)仍在努力生產(chǎn)足夠的襯底和逆變器設(shè)備，以滿足中國(guó)和美國(guó)等地電動(dòng)汽車行業(yè)的強(qiáng)勁需求。我知道這不僅僅是復(fù)蘇的問題。
所以，某些領(lǐng)域仍然短缺，如SiC功率器件，某些領(lǐng)域的復(fù)蘇速度不同，比如晶圓廠和邏輯芯片。你只需要看看英特爾的新聞就能知道，但我們可以看到，在一些領(lǐng)域DRAM和3D NAND業(yè)務(wù)本應(yīng)會(huì)稍許的回升，因?yàn)槟壳?/span>價(jià)格還在觸底，所以未來將會(huì)回升，但這是在生產(chǎn)已經(jīng)大幅削減的情況下，所以這些工廠仍然面臨困境。這都是行業(yè)中更多細(xì)微差別和細(xì)節(jié)的信息。
問：那么當(dāng)前行業(yè)復(fù)蘇的驅(qū)動(dòng)力是什么？
答：是的，我提到了其中一些因素，但從邏輯和晶圓廠的角度來看，人工智能無疑是一個(gè)巨大的推動(dòng)力。比如英偉達(dá)是價(jià)值1萬億美元的公司，而且正受益于人工智能。毫無疑問，AMD和英特爾正在競(jìng)爭(zhēng)英偉達(dá)的準(zhǔn)壟斷地位。但事實(shí)上，人工智能在各個(gè)國(guó)家的應(yīng)用都非常廣泛。但說實(shí)話，中國(guó)和美國(guó)是全球人工智能的兩個(gè)主要國(guó)家。對(duì)于這些芯片的需求是巨大的。每個(gè)人喜歡ChatGPT，但他們不明白的是，ChatGPT每天需要消耗價(jià)值75萬美元的芯片。
所以提供這些資源的能力很重要，每天需要超過75萬美元的資源。所有這些需求不會(huì)憑空出現(xiàn)，人工智能無疑是需求的來源之一。我提到了汽車，不僅僅是因?yàn)殡妱?dòng)汽車的興起，而且整個(gè)汽車行業(yè)正在從相對(duì)保守的車載微電子技術(shù)轉(zhuǎn)向非常激進(jìn)的技術(shù)。這和到底是汽油車、混合動(dòng)力車還是電動(dòng)車無關(guān)，所有圍著汽車轉(zhuǎn)的東西，導(dǎo)航、泊車、安全和通信等方面都在快速增長(zhǎng)，這對(duì)該行業(yè)來說是一個(gè)非常好的推動(dòng)力。
最后我想提到的最后一個(gè)是可再生能源。事實(shí)上，中國(guó)和美國(guó)在這方面處于領(lǐng)先地位。當(dāng)我們正努力發(fā)展可再生能源時(shí)，從化石燃料轉(zhuǎn)向可再生能源意味著需要大量的半導(dǎo)體和功率半導(dǎo)體來提供各種開關(guān)和轉(zhuǎn)換、逆變功能。
你知道我又要提我的特斯拉了，但我也非常自豪地說，加州如今有超過2/3的發(fā)電量來自非化石燃料，例如太陽(yáng)能等。我認(rèn)為，在人工智能、汽車技術(shù)突破和可再生能源方面，我們已經(jīng)有了足夠的動(dòng)力來推動(dòng)整個(gè)行業(yè)的發(fā)展。
問：請(qǐng)問各個(gè)細(xì)分市場(chǎng)供求周期不匹配的現(xiàn)象在半導(dǎo)體行業(yè)歷史上是否常見？
答：老實(shí)說，這是很常見的情況，行業(yè)從來都不會(huì)停滯不前?？偸怯羞M(jìn)步和變革。如果是一個(gè)技術(shù)突破較少的行業(yè)，你會(huì)看到一些穩(wěn)定性。但每當(dāng)出現(xiàn)突破，比如SiC功率模塊或人工智能，市場(chǎng)就會(huì)突然轉(zhuǎn)變。舉個(gè)例子，汽車制造過去通常采用瑞薩（Renesas）、英飛凌（Infineon）和意法半導(dǎo)體（STMicroelectronics）等公司的落后制程的技術(shù)。
話說回來，如果你了解最新的車輛，順便說一句我喜歡我的特斯拉，但像特斯拉這樣的最新車輛實(shí)際上使用先進(jìn)制程工藝。它們使用的微芯片只有5nm 制程。它們正在推動(dòng)人工智能技術(shù)的發(fā)展。所以，從65納米到28納米，再到5納米的跨越是巨大的。因此，當(dāng)你看到供應(yīng)過剩或供應(yīng)短缺時(shí)，其中一個(gè)原因是這個(gè)行業(yè)本身發(fā)生了變化，在功率器件也是如此。過去每個(gè)人都使用IGBT（絕緣柵雙極性晶體管）。IGBT是適用于高功率應(yīng)用的高功率雙極晶體管，不僅僅局限在汽車和像豐田普銳斯（Toyota Prius）的混合動(dòng)力車型上。
但現(xiàn)在我們正轉(zhuǎn)向SiC，對(duì)SiC器件和襯底的需求突然暴增。我指的是行業(yè)正在從IGBT過渡到SiC，但實(shí)際上并沒有準(zhǔn)備好支持切換到SiC的基礎(chǔ)和產(chǎn)能，正如我所見，特別是在SiC襯底方面，你看看投資公司的數(shù)量和對(duì)SiC襯底的投資規(guī)模，就能了解到SiC襯底的短缺情況有多么嚴(yán)重。
我同意你的觀點(diǎn)。行業(yè)總是經(jīng)歷一些變化，從供不應(yīng)求到供過于求再回到供不應(yīng)求，但我認(rèn)為人工智能和SiC等技術(shù)突破正在改變這個(gè)行業(yè)。這就是半導(dǎo)體行業(yè)的故事。它每隔幾年都會(huì)發(fā)生重塑。
問：上一個(gè)周期的行業(yè)狀況是否也會(huì)影響到下一個(gè)周期的行業(yè)狀況？
答：毫無疑問，新冠疫情使得移動(dòng)計(jì)算的需求遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超出了行業(yè)的準(zhǔn)備。全球都感受到了汽車行業(yè)和消費(fèi)者以及高性能計(jì)算領(lǐng)域的短缺問題。你的觀點(diǎn)是，現(xiàn)在存在著嚴(yán)重的短缺，所以我們可能會(huì)看到嚴(yán)重的供應(yīng)過剩。很可能會(huì)發(fā)生這種情況。我認(rèn)為，大家都想知道下一次的供求失衡什么時(shí)候會(huì)發(fā)生。在我看來，那將是在2025年左右，距離現(xiàn)在并不遙遠(yuǎn)。這意味著我們現(xiàn)在想要看到的補(bǔ)貼和投資最終將導(dǎo)致供應(yīng)過剩。但更重要的是，我認(rèn)為供應(yīng)過剩通常是因?yàn)樗綘I(yíng)或公共公司投入過多，因?yàn)樗麄兒茈y預(yù)測(cè)未來。
現(xiàn)在，我們正在談?wù)撛噲D區(qū)域化或本地化生產(chǎn)，所有地區(qū)都想這樣做。同樣，美國(guó)想增加制造業(yè)，中國(guó)也想增加制造業(yè)。印度、日本、歐洲都希望增加制造業(yè)。這不僅會(huì)推動(dòng)供應(yīng)過剩，還會(huì)推動(dòng)成本上升。毫無疑問，一旦開始本地化，雖然這很美好，但這意味著你需要開始削減單位生產(chǎn)的數(shù)量，因?yàn)槿蛏a(chǎn)廠變多了，這將推動(dòng)成本上升。所以，我對(duì)此并不樂觀。更嚴(yán)重的短缺正在改變下一個(gè)周期。我想說的是，下一個(gè)周期將嚴(yán)重偏離正常周期。我并不是說情況會(huì)變得更好或者更壞，SVRI只是試圖幫助客戶了解下一個(gè)周期將是什么樣子。
以及機(jī)遇將在哪里？我知道肯定會(huì)面臨挑戰(zhàn)。但老實(shí)說，將會(huì)有非常強(qiáng)大的機(jī)遇，因?yàn)楹笠咔闀r(shí)期對(duì)芯片的需求沒有回到疫情前的水平，在全球范圍內(nèi)，所有領(lǐng)域的芯片消耗量都有所增加——無論是消費(fèi)者、計(jì)算機(jī)、人工智能還是汽車等領(lǐng)域，疫情提高了產(chǎn)業(yè)的復(fù)合年均增長(zhǎng)率，作為一個(gè)半導(dǎo)體愛好者，我對(duì)此感到非常高興。
問：AI 芯片的發(fā)展速度是否無法趕上 AI 需求？
答：我不這么認(rèn)為。順便說一句，我理解你的迫不及待，目前我們本應(yīng)該有更多的人工智能。我的意思是，我的女兒們喜歡ChatGPT，希望能夠隨時(shí)使用它。但是，我不認(rèn)為需要幾年時(shí)間。我認(rèn)為挑戰(zhàn)并不在我們需要建設(shè)更多產(chǎn)能，而是在于人工智能技術(shù)整體仍在發(fā)展中。例如，今天英偉達(dá)人工智能芯片也就是GPU的短缺與晶圓廠無關(guān)。短缺這不是因?yàn)榕_(tái)積電無法生產(chǎn)足夠的5納米芯片，而是這款芯片需要先進(jìn)的封裝，比如CoWoS類型，這才是目前的瓶頸。這是第一點(diǎn)。第二點(diǎn)是，GPU圖形處理單元并不是人工智能的終極解決方案，它可能是我們今天所擁有的最接近的解決方案，但你可能也知道有公司正在研發(fā)新的設(shè)計(jì)。
上次我在上海的時(shí)候，實(shí)際上我遇到了一家初創(chuàng)企業(yè)，他們正在開發(fā)新的芯片和人工智能概念，如果這一切實(shí)現(xiàn)，意味著我們所建立的基于GPU的AI技術(shù)在未來不再是需求，我們需要進(jìn)行轉(zhuǎn)型。所以，我想告訴你的是，我理解你急切的心情，因?yàn)槲易约阂惨粯悠惹械仄诖斯ぶ悄艿陌l(fā)展，我也希望隨時(shí)隨地都能用上人工智能。但我認(rèn)為這些技術(shù)還沒穩(wěn)定下來。
我認(rèn)為盡管英偉達(dá)如今賺了很多錢，但我對(duì)中國(guó)的一些初創(chuàng)企業(yè)、AMD和英特爾會(huì)在一段時(shí)間內(nèi)推動(dòng)人工智能迎頭趕上并發(fā)展壯大非常有信心。我不認(rèn)為這需要幾年時(shí)間，可能六個(gè)月就夠了。最后，所有人都在談?wù)摚鏑hatGPT在性能上尚不穩(wěn)定的事實(shí)。大家都知道ChatGPT存在一些波動(dòng)需要修復(fù)。它是一個(gè)不斷變化的目標(biāo)，但不是幾年的時(shí)間，我認(rèn)為只需要幾個(gè)月。
問：目前，根據(jù) SIA 的報(bào)告，美國(guó)半導(dǎo)體行業(yè)整面臨嚴(yán)重的工人短缺，不少學(xué)術(shù)機(jī)構(gòu)加入機(jī)構(gòu)網(wǎng)絡(luò)來幫助培養(yǎng)半導(dǎo)體人才，您對(duì)這個(gè)培訓(xùn)渠道有何看法？
答：有兩點(diǎn)。第一，是的，毫無疑問，讓我們舉兩個(gè)例子：以韓國(guó)和美國(guó)為例，過去美國(guó)的芯片制造只是外包到亞洲，所以并不需要那么多熟練的工程師。需要注意的是，美國(guó)仍然擁有大量熟練的工程師，但他們主要面向芯片設(shè)計(jì)。大部分無晶圓廠公司都是美國(guó)企業(yè)。這是可以接受的。現(xiàn)在當(dāng)我們把芯片制造遷回美國(guó)時(shí)，我們需要找到這些熟練的工程師。這就是美國(guó)的例子，但是以韓國(guó)為例，他們一直在半導(dǎo)體領(lǐng)域非常強(qiáng)大。讓我給你舉個(gè)例子。最近對(duì)技術(shù)的禁運(yùn)意味著SK海力士和三星在中國(guó)的投資面臨風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。這意味著三星和SK海力士需要撤回并在韓國(guó)進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大制造能力，你猜發(fā)生了什么？這個(gè)計(jì)劃沒考慮人力資源方面。
所以，我記得你提到了美國(guó)，但是如果你看看韓國(guó)政府，他們非常積極去培養(yǎng)人才。舉例來說，如果你看看三星，他們?yōu)榕囵B(yǎng)未來的工人而開展的各種活動(dòng)是巨大的?；氐侥愕膯栴}。順便說一下，我們的一個(gè)客戶要求對(duì)此進(jìn)行基準(zhǔn)測(cè)試，所以我們?yōu)樗麄儎?chuàng)建了一份關(guān)于中國(guó)、韓國(guó)、日本、美國(guó)和歐洲如何提升熟練技術(shù)人員水平的基準(zhǔn)報(bào)告。我只想提一下在世界各地看到的一些非常好的創(chuàng)意，你提到了大學(xué)，這在任何地方都是如此。但是在美國(guó)，這是由英特爾和臺(tái)積電共同推動(dòng)的，他們現(xiàn)在提供半導(dǎo)體的速成課程，從事真空技術(shù)的人才他們不會(huì)無師自通制造半導(dǎo)體，但通過速成課程，可以讓他們成為半導(dǎo)體工程師。
第二個(gè)例子是，這個(gè)在三星非常有名。三星已經(jīng)請(qǐng)回了所有退休的工程師來幫助培訓(xùn)，因?yàn)樗麄儧]有足夠的人手。順便說一下，我自己也不算很年輕，但我認(rèn)為吸引過去5到10年退休的工程師成為年輕人的教師、導(dǎo)師、培訓(xùn)師是一個(gè)非常棒的想法。是的，我們的確將面臨人力短缺問題，但現(xiàn)在也已經(jīng)有很多出色的解決思路了。不過，我認(rèn)為這些想法需要進(jìn)行定制和本地化。例如，中國(guó)不會(huì)完全照搬韓國(guó)的做法，日本也不會(huì)完全照搬。但我們的一位日本客戶正在考慮根據(jù)我們的基準(zhǔn)報(bào)告，建立某種形式的培訓(xùn)中心，并吸引人才來幫助培訓(xùn)其他人。
所以是的，毫無疑問，我們需要在這個(gè)行業(yè)中擁有更多的人才。人才數(shù)量并不是真正的問題，問題在于人才梯隊(duì)必須本地化，并且在所有關(guān)鍵地區(qū)附近，包括印度、中國(guó)和韓國(guó)，所有這些地區(qū)都將需要更多的人才。其中一些地區(qū)，比如韓國(guó)，已經(jīng)擁有非常強(qiáng)大的基礎(chǔ)，但是例如印度的基礎(chǔ)還不夠強(qiáng)大。老實(shí)說，在日本，半導(dǎo)體產(chǎn)業(yè)已經(jīng)被認(rèn)為是過去的東西了。它不再被視為世界上最酷的技術(shù)。我是說，在日本，20年前半導(dǎo)體很酷，但是現(xiàn)在年輕工程師不想在半導(dǎo)體領(lǐng)域工作。
我認(rèn)為準(zhǔn)備勞動(dòng)力，尋找工程師，激勵(lì)年輕工程師加入半導(dǎo)體行業(yè)是一個(gè)非常重要的課題。毫無疑問。
問：這種模式，對(duì)于中國(guó)有什么啟示？
答：顯然，正如我上面提到的，中國(guó)在某種程度上處于一定的位置，所以我給出了一個(gè)例子。印度處于前半導(dǎo)體制造時(shí)期，而日本則是后半導(dǎo)體制造時(shí)期。中國(guó)更多地參考韓國(guó)的做法。因此，從產(chǎn)業(yè)增長(zhǎng)周期來看，我認(rèn)為中國(guó)更像韓國(guó)，意味著強(qiáng)大的行業(yè)快速發(fā)展。因此，如果中國(guó)想學(xué)習(xí)如何培養(yǎng)熟練工人隊(duì)伍，我強(qiáng)烈推薦關(guān)注三星正在做的事情。
我前面提到過三星正在招募退休人員參與培訓(xùn)，但韓國(guó)政府也發(fā)起了大規(guī)模的培訓(xùn)計(jì)劃。他們建立了一個(gè)培訓(xùn)中心，和所有學(xué)校合作并得到了所有關(guān)鍵公司（如三星、SK海力士等）的支持。我記得他們?nèi)ツ?月簽署了備忘錄，并計(jì)劃在今年9月完成第一批400名工程師的培養(yǎng)。因此，對(duì)于中國(guó)來說，我強(qiáng)烈建議借鑒三星和韓國(guó)政府的做法。我知道中國(guó)的產(chǎn)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模與韓國(guó)不同，但從尋找最佳實(shí)踐的角度來看，我肯定會(huì)推薦這樣做。
問：對(duì)于日本發(fā)展 GAA 的看法？
答：我先打個(gè)岔，我曾在NEC（日本電氣）工作了10年，當(dāng)時(shí)NEC是全球第二大半導(dǎo)體公司，我在日本公司任職的十年里，我對(duì)日本的專業(yè)知識(shí)非常贊賞，但是從芯片制造角度來看，其半導(dǎo)體行業(yè)在某些方面表現(xiàn)出色。其中之一就是CMOS傳感器。我知道你提到了索尼，但索尼并不關(guān)心邏輯芯片，他們專注于圖像傳感器，在這個(gè)領(lǐng)域他們是世界第一。他們成功擊敗了三星和意法半導(dǎo)體。所以，從技術(shù)角度來看，我認(rèn)為索尼在圖像傳感器和鎧俠在3D NAND閃存方面處于領(lǐng)先地位。順便我想糾正一下，大家都認(rèn)為鎧俠是全球第二、第三或第四大閃存制造商，實(shí)際上他們的制造規(guī)模和三星一樣大，人們很少意識(shí)到，西部數(shù)據(jù)和鎧俠在半導(dǎo)體制造上實(shí)際上是同一家公司。在服務(wù)器市場(chǎng)上，他們是全球第一。
如果我們看看日本，在兩個(gè)領(lǐng)域他們表現(xiàn)得非常出色，即圖像傳感器和3D NAND。我知道這不是主流產(chǎn)品，也不是主流的代工廠，但我想提醒大家，在使用蘋果iPhone時(shí)，實(shí)際上內(nèi)部搭載了很多索尼和鎧俠的日本芯片。這是第一點(diǎn)。
第二點(diǎn)是，是的，沒錯(cuò)。像其他國(guó)家一樣，日本也希望在邏輯芯片制造方面重返一些領(lǐng)域。他們有兩個(gè)努力的方向。一個(gè)是與臺(tái)積電合作的28納米工藝。這里需要強(qiáng)調(diào)一下，28納米工藝處于技術(shù)節(jié)點(diǎn)中的甜點(diǎn)位置。實(shí)際上，這種工藝是成本最低廉的制造方式。另一個(gè)是與IBM合作的2納米工藝。我也曾在臺(tái)積電工作過，對(duì)該公司非常了解。我參與了他們?cè)谛录悠碌囊蛔A廠建設(shè)，因此我非常喜歡代工的工作。
這是否真的是日本正在重塑芯片制造業(yè)？我不這么認(rèn)為。我認(rèn)為他們是吸引臺(tái)積電來滿足日本對(duì)傳統(tǒng)制程技術(shù)的需求。我知道，傳統(tǒng)制程技術(shù)，像28納米芯片仍然是先進(jìn)的，但這正是臺(tái)積電擅長(zhǎng)的。所以這是第一點(diǎn)。第二點(diǎn)是與IBM合作的2納米芯片，的確，這比28納米芯片更不尋常。如果你看看最近的情況，雖然我不能透露我們的客戶，但我們與其中一些活動(dòng)關(guān)系非常密切。
我指的是SVRI。但在這種情況下，最初規(guī)模相對(duì)較小的投資正在變成非常大的投資。對(duì)此我印象非常深刻。我的很多日本朋友將加入到這個(gè)2納米的先進(jìn)節(jié)點(diǎn)。我只想提一點(diǎn)，毫無疑問，日本的2納米芯片項(xiàng)目想要與臺(tái)積電競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，但他們正在努力參與其中。因?yàn)檎f實(shí)話，臺(tái)積電是塊硬骨頭，要與臺(tái)積電競(jìng)爭(zhēng)并非易事，但他們至少有一個(gè)策略規(guī)劃，搞清楚哪些領(lǐng)域臺(tái)積電可能還沒觸及到。這仍然是一個(gè)困難的領(lǐng)域。
但至少我想提到的是，如果你了解他們正在做的事情，你會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)他們正在深思熟慮自己能做什么，有哪些尖端的領(lǐng)域臺(tái)積電能做，又有哪些不能做?？傊灰团_(tái)積電硬碰硬，而是尋找一個(gè)臺(tái)積電尚未觸及的賽道。最近的一個(gè)例子就是人工智能。我不確定這是否會(huì)成功，但我對(duì)此表示贊賞。我下個(gè)月將回到日本，我相信我會(huì)以某種方式參與其中。
問：在熊本設(shè)廠是否意味著索尼在圖像傳感器上的限制有所緩解？
答：毫無疑問，我認(rèn)為圖像傳感器勝負(fù)仍然未知，三星過去曾經(jīng)是第一，所以我相信三星會(huì)盡其所能奪回索尼的領(lǐng)先地位?，F(xiàn)在，索尼能否從臺(tái)積電那里學(xué)到一些東西呢？也許吧。老實(shí)說，我不認(rèn)為熊本的意圖是這樣的。我的意思是，熊本更多的是在邏輯芯片方面有所作為，而不是關(guān)于圖像方面的。但同時(shí)，由于熊本將投產(chǎn)28納米芯片，也就是采用浸沒式光刻技術(shù)，這將為邏輯芯片帶來很多浸沒式光刻技術(shù)的專業(yè)知識(shí)。這能否轉(zhuǎn)化為對(duì)圖像傳感器的支持呢？
毫無疑問會(huì)的，日本沒有很多具備浸沒式光刻技術(shù)的半導(dǎo)體制造工廠，尤其是像鎧俠那樣專注于3D NAND閃存技術(shù)的半導(dǎo)體制造工廠不會(huì)有。唯一可能擁有較強(qiáng)浸沒式光刻技術(shù)的地方可能就是廣島的美光（Micron）了。所以，毫無疑問，熊本將成為浸沒式光刻技術(shù)的第二個(gè)卓越中心。這是否能轉(zhuǎn)化為對(duì)索尼的支持呢？我會(huì)在下個(gè)月回到日本，所以關(guān)于這個(gè)問題還有很多我可以說，我會(huì)及時(shí)更新的。
問：蘋果只像TSMC購(gòu)買成熟晶圓？
答：首先，關(guān)于代工廠的業(yè)務(wù)方式有兩種。他們要么銷售晶圓，要么銷售好的裸片。通常來說，如果看臺(tái)積電的業(yè)務(wù)，大約三分之一的業(yè)務(wù)是基于晶圓的，也就是說只要經(jīng)過電測(cè)試合格，無論產(chǎn)量如何，他們都會(huì)銷售出去。而另外的三分之二則是銷售成品裸片，這意味著你只需要為晶圓上的合格芯片付款?，F(xiàn)在，關(guān)于蘋果和臺(tái)積電的問題，沒有人會(huì)否認(rèn)蘋果是臺(tái)積電非常重要的客戶，也沒有人否認(rèn)在投產(chǎn)的前六個(gè)月——這適用于臺(tái)積電的所有技術(shù)——投產(chǎn)后前6個(gè)月的制造都處在良率爬坡。他們需要學(xué)習(xí)以及怎么制造晶圓。
順便說一句，他們使用了很多人工智能來實(shí)現(xiàn)這一點(diǎn)。所以，他們需要很多英偉達(dá)芯片來運(yùn)行他們的生產(chǎn)。但是他們需要大約6個(gè)月的時(shí)間來調(diào)試他們的3納米工藝。蘋果是第一個(gè)客戶。所以，為什么臺(tái)積電會(huì)同意進(jìn)行成品裸片銷售而不是晶圓銷售？很簡(jiǎn)單，他們與蘋果合作，使得他們的3納米工藝成為世界上最好的技術(shù)。無論由于蘋果只為成品裸片付款，給臺(tái)積電少付了多少錢，臺(tái)積電也會(huì)在將來其他客戶轉(zhuǎn)向3納米工藝時(shí)彌補(bǔ)這些損失。所以不要擔(dān)心，我知道這總是成為重點(diǎn)新聞。順便說一句，每次臺(tái)積電開展新技術(shù)時(shí)，通常會(huì)有三到六個(gè)月的負(fù)面報(bào)道，說臺(tái)積電不行了。然后6個(gè)月過后，臺(tái)積電突然又行了。我覺得對(duì)你的問題的答案很簡(jiǎn)單，一旦他們調(diào)試好3納米工藝，他們就會(huì)趕超三星。你還記得吧，三星比臺(tái)積電早大約三到六個(gè)月開始3納米工藝，一旦他們良率爬上去了，臺(tái)積電就會(huì)重新領(lǐng)先。這很明顯的事兒。
問：TSMC是否受到了三星的壓力？
答：毫無疑問是的，這不是第一次，也不會(huì)是最后一次。其中一個(gè)原因是三星不僅僅是一個(gè)晶圓代工廠，他們是一個(gè)集成設(shè)備制造商（IDM），這意味著當(dāng)他們開始嘗試他們的技術(shù)時(shí)，他們有一個(gè)試驗(yàn)田，也就是他們手機(jī)產(chǎn)品線的基本盤。而臺(tái)積電沒有這樣的條件，臺(tái)積電只能在芯片上進(jìn)行試驗(yàn)。然后他們需要像蘋果這樣的客戶來調(diào)試技術(shù)并推動(dòng)落地到產(chǎn)品。
所以，這不是第一次，也不會(huì)是最后一次。通常情況下，因?yàn)槿窃趩?dòng)代工業(yè)務(wù)之前就開始了IDM業(yè)務(wù)，所以他們與英特爾一樣，他們?cè)诹慨a(chǎn)可能會(huì)稍微領(lǐng)先于臺(tái)積電。這么做有啥好處？到目前為止，好像沒有。如果你觀察三星與臺(tái)積電市場(chǎng)份額的歷史記錄，你會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)三星并沒有獲得顯著的市場(chǎng)份額增長(zhǎng)。但老實(shí)說，我隔壁就是臺(tái)積電，我也不是不喜歡臺(tái)積電，我認(rèn)為臺(tái)積電不會(huì)成為壟斷商。我完全支持英特爾和三星獲得更多的市場(chǎng)份額。
問：您認(rèn)為GAA哪家會(huì)更有優(yōu)勢(shì)？
答：有兩點(diǎn)。第一，三星決定在3納米技術(shù)上采用Gate-All-Around結(jié)構(gòu)，我認(rèn)為這可能不是最好的選擇。我這樣說可能不會(huì)被太多人支持，但是在一個(gè)節(jié)點(diǎn)內(nèi)調(diào)整晶體管技術(shù)總是非常冒險(xiǎn)的。從性能、成本和尺寸幾個(gè)方面來看，三星的3納米GAA技術(shù)并沒有特別突出。這是第一點(diǎn)。
第二點(diǎn)是，就純粹的晶體管技術(shù)而言，沒有比英特爾更優(yōu)秀的了。毫無疑問，在全球范圍內(nèi)，英特爾擁有最出色的設(shè)備工程師。問題在于，代工廠不僅僅是賣芯片上的晶體管，而是賣提供給客戶的商業(yè)服務(wù)。這就是挑戰(zhàn)所在。大家都在試圖比較三星、英特爾和臺(tái)積電的在技術(shù)水平、良率或產(chǎn)能水平的差異。我認(rèn)為這是錯(cuò)誤的觀點(diǎn)。你應(yīng)該關(guān)注的是哪家公司向其代工客戶提供了最好的客戶服務(wù)。我給你舉個(gè)例子，僅此供參考。
我不會(huì)透露有關(guān)知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)內(nèi)容。但是作為臺(tái)積電的一名晶圓廠工程總監(jiān)，我經(jīng)常會(huì)在凌晨2點(diǎn)接到來自高通（位于圣地亞哥）的電話，跟我說晶圓生產(chǎn)線上出現(xiàn)了什么問題，比如我生產(chǎn)的X號(hào)晶圓在三個(gè)小時(shí)前停止工作了，他們希望我調(diào)查并采取措施。這意味著即使是遠(yuǎn)在圣地亞哥的高通工程師也認(rèn)為臺(tái)積電就像他自己的晶圓廠，而他就像在這個(gè)晶圓廠里工作一樣。我認(rèn)為目前三星和英特爾在客戶服務(wù)方面還沒有達(dá)到這個(gè)水平。所以回到你的問題，誰在GAA方面做得最好，我認(rèn)為是英特爾。但對(duì)于代工的角度來說這是否重要？也不是不重要，但這不一定是獲取市場(chǎng)份額最重要的方面。
問：IDM時(shí)代是已經(jīng)結(jié)束？
答：我的回答可能是，IDM（集成設(shè)備制造商）的時(shí)代已經(jīng)結(jié)束，我指的IDM是那些單純?cè)O(shè)計(jì)、制造并最終銷售芯片的公司。從今天來看，最大的公司并不是IDM公司，他們是系統(tǒng)制造商，或者叫服務(wù)提供商。所以，如果你看蘋果、谷歌或者Facebook，實(shí)際上芯片在他們的業(yè)務(wù)中只是一個(gè)小組成部分，雖然它很重要。但這些公司之所以成功，是因?yàn)樗麄儾毁u系統(tǒng)，而是賣服務(wù)。比如說，谷歌就在銷售各種服務(wù)。為了做到這一點(diǎn)，他們必須相臺(tái)積電購(gòu)買芯片。再比如說，現(xiàn)在的英特爾仍在銷售微處理器，他們并不是系統(tǒng)制造商。如果你不小心或者沒有正確判斷市場(chǎng)需求，你可能會(huì)積壓很多沒人愿意購(gòu)買的庫(kù)存。我的回答是，我認(rèn)為 IDM 的時(shí)代已經(jīng)結(jié)束了。
現(xiàn)在推動(dòng)產(chǎn)業(yè)增長(zhǎng)的是服務(wù)產(chǎn)品提供商、系統(tǒng)提供商。這是更高一層的定位，芯片不是重點(diǎn)，電路板也不是重點(diǎn)，重點(diǎn)是向客戶提供完整解決方案。蘋果絕對(duì)是一個(gè)非常注重客戶使用體驗(yàn)和服務(wù)滿意度的公司。
展望未來，我認(rèn)為英特爾的IDM戰(zhàn)略是正確的。我支持IDM 2.0，并且我真誠(chéng)地認(rèn)為現(xiàn)任CEO正在朝著正確的方向發(fā)展，但他仍然背負(fù)著舊英特爾的包袱。光靠銷售微處理器掙錢的時(shí)代已經(jīng)結(jié)束了。我可以想象在未來，英特爾將成為一個(gè)強(qiáng)大的晶圓代工廠。但他們?nèi)匀恍枰c臺(tái)積電競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，張忠謀（Morris Chang）是發(fā)明了晶圓代工業(yè)務(wù)。
我認(rèn)為世界上很少有人真正理解晶圓代工的含義。大多數(shù)人只關(guān)注臺(tái)積電的納米制程、資金和良率比較。事實(shí)上，當(dāng)企業(yè)希望將自己的系統(tǒng)推向市場(chǎng)時(shí)，他們希望能夠使喚像臺(tái)積電這樣的供應(yīng)商，就像他們自己的晶圓廠一樣。這就是關(guān)鍵。簡(jiǎn)而言之，我認(rèn)為IDM銷售芯片的時(shí)代已經(jīng)過去了。
問： 為什么政府今天如此積極參與？
答：這問題簡(jiǎn)單，就是因?yàn)槿毙?。沒人對(duì)在疫情期間的缺芯事件感到滿意。各國(guó)政府的反應(yīng)是：“那么我就自己生產(chǎn)?！倍遥@不僅僅是芯片的問題?？谡忠渤霈F(xiàn)了短缺。在疫情期間，每個(gè)國(guó)家都決定要自己生產(chǎn)口罩。我理解這一點(diǎn)，雖然建立口罩生產(chǎn)線并不是特別昂貴。
但是現(xiàn)在，如果你看一下補(bǔ)貼水平，我之前提到過，我們已經(jīng)達(dá)到了1萬億美元等級(jí)的政府補(bǔ)貼。大部分補(bǔ)貼用于將資源和芯片制造業(yè)本地化、區(qū)域化到自己國(guó)家。順便聲明，我并不對(duì)補(bǔ)貼行為進(jìn)行評(píng)判。作為一名顧問，我的角色是幫助人們了解行業(yè)發(fā)展方向，理解行業(yè)的發(fā)展趨勢(shì)。我并不是來評(píng)判這是否是正確的抉擇。我只是把現(xiàn)象忠實(shí)地表述出來，現(xiàn)實(shí)是如今這些補(bǔ)貼正在推動(dòng)產(chǎn)業(yè)的區(qū)域化趨勢(shì)。
問：美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)推出的貨幣政策對(duì)政府補(bǔ)貼有何影響？
答：顯然，SVRI并未涉及行業(yè)的金融方面或補(bǔ)貼來源。只是我想提一下，比方在美國(guó)，補(bǔ)貼水平只是一個(gè)微不足道的金額。如果你看一下美國(guó)的GDP規(guī)模，這是數(shù)千億美元的級(jí)別。與之相比，補(bǔ)貼金額微不足道。所以，說實(shí)話，我對(duì)聯(lián)邦銀行按月決定的金額與這筆錢之間的聯(lián)系并不太擔(dān)心，你可能也知道，但在美國(guó)政府預(yù)算中，500億美元意味著什么呢？不多，我覺得反而很少。順便說一句，這可能在其他地方不成立。我提到的是美國(guó)的5.2萬億美元，是的，可能會(huì)略有不同。例如，德國(guó)目前正在大量投入補(bǔ)貼。與其國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值相比，補(bǔ)貼的比例比美國(guó)要高得多，但我仍然不擔(dān)心，因?yàn)榈聡?guó)擁有非常強(qiáng)大的工業(yè)和商業(yè)實(shí)力。但是，畢竟，不同國(guó)家之間可能會(huì)有所不同。
問：您對(duì)這些政府的干預(yù)有何看法？
答：是的，我認(rèn)為這個(gè)問題可以從兩個(gè)甚至三個(gè)方面來看。第一個(gè)是補(bǔ)貼。補(bǔ)貼是簡(jiǎn)單明了的，它可以激勵(lì)人們進(jìn)行投資，這沒啥問題。我覺得雖然補(bǔ)貼會(huì)產(chǎn)生干擾，但這是一種可接受的干擾。但是當(dāng)我們談到華為時(shí)，我們談?wù)摰氖窍拗坪图夹g(shù)控制。這些是對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)施加的限制。毫無疑問，相對(duì)于補(bǔ)貼而言，這些要更具破壞性。所以補(bǔ)貼還好。我給你舉個(gè)例子，在中國(guó)，政府大約投入了超過1000億美元來支持本土半導(dǎo)體設(shè)備制造商。這是很好的，意味著補(bǔ)貼有助于他們的發(fā)展并提高設(shè)備水平。
然而，當(dāng)政府開始介入并對(duì)技術(shù)進(jìn)行監(jiān)管和控制時(shí)，這要分成兩部分。首先，這與半導(dǎo)體行業(yè)無關(guān)，我只是作為一個(gè)被動(dòng)的旁觀者。第二點(diǎn)，在我看來毫無疑問。例如ASML最終同意了美國(guó)的要求，停止向中國(guó)出口某些型號(hào)的光刻設(shè)備后，這將減緩中國(guó)在先進(jìn)工藝制程方面的一些增長(zhǎng)。
這意味著什么？這意味著這些投資將不得不流向其他地方。現(xiàn)在問題是，這會(huì)造成延遲嗎？很可能會(huì)，因此，這意味著原本應(yīng)該在中國(guó)進(jìn)行的一些14納米晶圓廠的工作將不得不轉(zhuǎn)移到其他地方。我相信這將導(dǎo)致一些投資的延遲。最近，我參與了在印度的一個(gè)項(xiàng)目，我毫不懷疑當(dāng)某個(gè)地區(qū)無法投資和發(fā)展時(shí)，它就會(huì)尋求其他地區(qū)來接手，這正是今天正在發(fā)生的事情。所以回到你的問題：這些干預(yù)會(huì)有負(fù)面影響嗎？注意我說的不是補(bǔ)貼，而是干預(yù)措施、技術(shù)控制、知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)控制是否會(huì)影響行業(yè)，導(dǎo)致增長(zhǎng)放緩或引發(fā)短缺，答案當(dāng)然是肯定的。現(xiàn)在，我毫不懷疑這些措施并不是出于產(chǎn)業(yè)目的，而是出于政治原因。我不評(píng)價(jià)，我只是看到了這一現(xiàn)象。
順便說一句，SVRI的角色是解釋這些限制的后果，因?yàn)檫@些限制主要是對(duì)商業(yè)模式的干擾。問題是，是否存在機(jī)遇？是存在機(jī)遇的，只是這些機(jī)遇將會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)移、改變。我們?cè)赟VRI所做的就是了解這些后果，了解在印度、中國(guó)、日本等地發(fā)生的事情，以及公司應(yīng)該如何根據(jù)這些限制調(diào)整他們的策略?；氐侥愕膯栴}，毫無疑問，對(duì)技術(shù)出口和知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)控制的某些限制可能會(huì)增加一些短缺，可能會(huì)延遲投資，改變投資方向。
問：您能給我們一些關(guān)于 SVRI 如何幫助該行業(yè)的想法嗎？
答：是的，我們剛剛討論了行業(yè)的現(xiàn)狀。毫無疑問，這是一個(gè)復(fù)雜的行業(yè)。你提到了圖像傳感器，我們討論了人工智能，還有碳化硅，這個(gè)行業(yè)真的很難懂。我們的角色就是幫助行業(yè)讀懂行情。那么我們?nèi)绾翁峁椭?？我們?yōu)榭蛻籼峁┦袌?chǎng)研究報(bào)告。但是正如我之前所說，我們努力超越數(shù)據(jù)和圖表。很多咨詢公司會(huì)給你提供一個(gè)300頁(yè)的報(bào)告，里面充斥著大量的圖表和數(shù)據(jù)，但可能并沒有得出一個(gè)結(jié)論，他們只是給你一堆數(shù)字，然后讓你自己去決定該做什么。而我們的目標(biāo)并不是這樣。我們真的想與客戶合作，達(dá)成共識(shí)，這意味著進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)和基準(zhǔn)測(cè)試。我之前提到過，我們正在對(duì)技能和員工培訓(xùn)進(jìn)行基準(zhǔn)測(cè)試，我認(rèn)為這非常重要。
所以，我們有一個(gè)日本客戶想要了解世界上關(guān)于培訓(xùn)新技術(shù)人員、新工程師和新操作員的最佳方案，這就是我們的工作方式，就是預(yù)測(cè)和基準(zhǔn)測(cè)試。而且在某些情況下，我可以給你舉個(gè)例子。我們?cè)?jīng)有一個(gè)客戶，我不能透露客戶的名字，但他是一個(gè)大型代工廠的供應(yīng)商。他們問了一個(gè)問題，就是我們能做些什么來縮短我們的生產(chǎn)周期時(shí)間？因?yàn)檫@些代工廠，你可能知道，但我之所以喜歡在臺(tái)積電工作，就是因?yàn)樗苑昼姙閱挝?，而不是以天為單位。這意味著在臺(tái)積電的生產(chǎn)周期時(shí)間非?？臁?/span>
所以，供應(yīng)商受到了這方面的挑戰(zhàn)。我們有一個(gè)客戶要求我們簡(jiǎn)單地調(diào)查他們的制造現(xiàn)場(chǎng)、銷售、市場(chǎng)營(yíng)銷和工程部門，告訴他們能做些什么來加快運(yùn)營(yíng)速度，因?yàn)榇S的速度非?？?，我們很難滿足他們的需求。這就是我們所面對(duì)的一切。
毫無疑問，如果你看看增長(zhǎng)情況，中國(guó)半導(dǎo)體產(chǎn)業(yè)的增長(zhǎng)速度是驚人的。需要說明的是，它可能不是指14納米制程，也可能是28納米、碳化硅甚至可再生能源。沒有什么能夠阻止中國(guó)的半導(dǎo)體產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展，只是發(fā)展路線圖和增長(zhǎng)驅(qū)動(dòng)因素將隨著時(shí)間而發(fā)生變化并適應(yīng)。這意味著對(duì)于很多公司來說，這是機(jī)遇。例如，你可能已經(jīng)了解了碳化硅，最大的碳化硅襯底制造商是美國(guó)公司W(wǎng)olfspeed。他們正在美國(guó)擴(kuò)建最大的碳化硅襯底生產(chǎn)工廠，毫無疑問，其中一些襯底將銷往世界各地。
如果你搜索一下Wolfspeed供貨協(xié)議，就會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)他們與許多設(shè)備制造商和電動(dòng)汽車制造商簽訂了協(xié)議。所以簡(jiǎn)單地回答你的問題，當(dāng)這些干擾因素出現(xiàn)時(shí)，我們進(jìn)行區(qū)域化，我們正在努力在這些新的地區(qū)拓展業(yè)務(wù)，以發(fā)展新的業(yè)務(wù)。
問：您能否強(qiáng)調(diào)一些關(guān)鍵的行業(yè)變化 ，尤其是相對(duì)以往半導(dǎo)體行業(yè)周期里不一樣的部分？
答：我認(rèn)為你剛才說的有句話非常重要：并不是一切都與先進(jìn)工藝有關(guān)。我之后會(huì)回答你的問題，但是我對(duì)聯(lián)華電子（UMC）非常了解。我有很多朋友在那里工作，但你可能還記得，在某個(gè)時(shí)候，聯(lián)華電子決定不再與臺(tái)積電在先進(jìn)工藝上競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。
看看現(xiàn)在的他們，他們非常賺錢，發(fā)展得非常好，但他們并不專注于先進(jìn)工藝，而是涉足各種應(yīng)用領(lǐng)域。回到你的問題上，行業(yè)中似乎有哪些關(guān)鍵的變革領(lǐng)域？毫無疑問，極紫外光刻技術(shù)（EUV）是其中之一。我知道我剛說過先進(jìn)工藝并不是一切，但是毫無疑問，極紫外光刻技術(shù)（EUV）是一個(gè)突破。如今，EUV有五家主要用戶，包括英特爾、臺(tái)積電、三星、海力士和美光。當(dāng)然，在不久的將來會(huì)有更多，但這些公司確實(shí)推動(dòng)了光刻技術(shù)發(fā)展，這就是第一點(diǎn)。
另一個(gè)我想提到的但和純技術(shù)沒啥關(guān)系的領(lǐng)域是工業(yè)4.0。人們對(duì)工業(yè)4.0并不太熟悉，但它與我之前提到的圍繞著系統(tǒng)供應(yīng)商（的生態(tài)系統(tǒng)）密切相關(guān)。還記得嗎？我說過集成器件制造商（IDM）時(shí)代已經(jīng)結(jié)束，而系統(tǒng)供應(yīng)商正在基于工業(yè)4.0進(jìn)行發(fā)展。也許你已經(jīng)知道，工業(yè)4.0基本上是一個(gè)傳感器網(wǎng)絡(luò)，它能讓你全面了解整個(gè)生產(chǎn)線，而不僅僅是芯片或電路板，它涵蓋了整個(gè)生產(chǎn)過程，直到最終產(chǎn)品。我認(rèn)為這一點(diǎn)并沒有得到廣泛的理解，但某些公司已經(jīng)成功地應(yīng)用了工業(yè)4.0。
如果你看一下英飛凌、高塔、臺(tái)積電等晶圓代工廠，有很多這樣的例子。還有一個(gè)我現(xiàn)在非常感興趣的領(lǐng)域，我自己在技術(shù)、行業(yè)和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施領(lǐng)域切換了好幾次賽道。我只是想提一下設(shè)備開發(fā)。我在設(shè)備開發(fā)方面度過了大約10到15年的時(shí)間，擔(dān)任過總經(jīng)理職位。關(guān)鍵在于，我們可能正處在一個(gè)轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)上，也許你還記得很久以前美國(guó)擁有過類似的模式，特別是在設(shè)備制造方面。
然后日本崛起了，在接下來的10到15年里，日本占據(jù)了市場(chǎng)份額的三分之一到一半。其中包括尼康（Nikon）、佳能（Canon）、東京電子（Tokyo Electron）等公司?，F(xiàn)在您猜怎么著？中國(guó)現(xiàn)在正在做同樣的事情，中國(guó)正在走當(dāng)年日本走的路。所以，我想象在5年后，（我知道我忽略了阿斯麥）除了購(gòu)買美國(guó)或日本的設(shè)備，你還將擁有三家供應(yīng)商：中國(guó)、日本和美國(guó)。為什么我認(rèn)為這是好事呢？因?yàn)楦嗟母?jìng)爭(zhēng)意味著更多的創(chuàng)新，這將促使半導(dǎo)體行業(yè)蓬勃發(fā)展，增長(zhǎng)更快。不好意思，我瀏覽了業(yè)界中幾個(gè)重要的領(lǐng)域，但這些可能是我列表中最重要的三個(gè)點(diǎn)。
以下是采訪原文（英文）：
Q:What is SVRI busy with these days, what keeps you awake at night?
A:A main theme is the industry recovery, you know that during Covid, we've been in a shortage situation ramp. After Covid, we went into a ramp down and oversupply, and we are now finally recovering from that, So the industry is recovering, it’s starting to ramp. But the unusual aspect of this recovery is there's a huge amount of government interventions and subsidies. I think the last time I checked we are at a trillion-dollar subsidies by various governments in the world and that's very unusual, so it's going to be a recovery with a lot of distortions.
Q:You talk about semi industry recovery but what is the industry status?
A:Yes, that's a good question, because actually when we talk about the industry, we tend to merge everything in one big industry status. But that's not correct. Actually, if you look at the foundry, the logic, the DRAM, the 3D and flash, the status of recovery is very different. So, I tend to say that we are recovering, but these segments are various levels. I think definitely that the foundry and maybe the logic is head of the pack. That's usually the case. But there are good reasons for that. And I think DRAM and 3D NAND is barely plateauing at the bottom of price curve. So, some of our customers, by the way, are memory makers, and they are not yet happy with the situation. We know it's going to come back, but it's not exactly where we should be.
And then I mentioned that we are over shortages, but that's not completely correct. I know that there's always somebody telling me we are still in shortage. There are few areas of shortage and I just want to mention one which is the power SiC for EV vehicles. This is a fantastic actually business opportunity, but also technology. When Elon Musk decided to switch over from IGBTs to SiC power modules, e-change the industry, and the industry is still trying to generate enough substrate, enough for inverter devices, for the EV industry, which is ramping strongly in China, as well as in the US, I know there's a little bit more neurons than just recovery.
So, some areas still in shortage, like sic power, some areas are differently in the ramp like foundries and logic. You just need to read the letters from Intel, but some areas DRAM and 3D NAND would like to see a little bit more business coming, you know the pricing still is at the bottom. It's going to come back up, but there's been a lot of cut in production, so these factories are still suffering. So that's a bit more nuance and details on the industry.
Q:So what are the current industry recovery drivers?
A:Yes, I mentioned some of them, but from a logic and foundry point of view, artificial intelligence no doubt is a huge driver. I mean Nvidia by the way the $1 trillion company and Nvidia is benefiting from it. There's no question that AMD and Intel are going after the quasi monopoly of Nvidia. But the fact is that all the artificial intelligence usage in every country. But to be honest, China is and US are the top two artificial intelligence countries in the world. The demands for these chips are huge. Everybody is love ChatGPT what they don't understand is that ChatGPT consumes three quarter million dollars of microchips a day.
So there are capacities. It is above $750,000 a day. All of these needs to come from somewhere. So AI is definitely one. I’ve mentioned automotive not just the fact that they are EVS, electrical vehicles, but the automotive is switching over from a relatively conservative technology in terms of microelectronics on board to very aggressive. It doesn't matter. Actually, if the car is gasoline, hybrid or electrical, all of these support around the car in terms of routing, parking, safety, communications are exploding and this is a very good driver for the industry.
And then the last one I want to mention, I mentioned a little bit as I see, but renewable. The fact that and again, China and the US are really leading the pack there. The fact that we are trying to work on renewable energies, moving from fossil fuel to renewable means that a lot of the semiconductor, power semiconductor needs to provide all of these switching capabilities, inversions, doing this.
You know, I mentioned my Tesla, but I’m also very proud that, you know, California today is over 2/3 non-fossil fuel, electricity production, solar, and all of these. That's, I think, between AI the automotive breakthrough and the renewable energies, I think we have more than enough to drive the industry.
Q:Is the mismatch between the supply and demand cycles of various market segments common in the history of the semiconductor industry?
A:It is common, to be honest, the industry is never a standingstill. There are always progress. If it was an industry with less technological breakthrough, you would see some stability. But every time the breakthrough, like, for example, SiC power modules or artificial intelligence, then suddenly the market shifts, I give you an example, but automotive tended to be productions of lagging type technologies by companies like Renesas, Infineon, STMicroelectronics.
The latest cars, if you know, by the way, I enjoy my Tesla, I love it, but the latest cars like the Tesla is actually leading edge. These are microchips which are in the 5 millimeters. They are pushing the envelope with AI, so the shift from maybe 65nm, 90nm to 28nm, 9nm, to 5 nanometer is a big shift. And so when you see the oversupply, undersupply shortage, one of the reason is the industry is changing same way for the power. Everybody used to use IGBTs. IGBTs are high powered bipolar transistors for high power, just not only automotive and hybrid cars like Toyota Prius.
But now that we've moved to SiC suddenly, the demand for SiC devices and substrates is humongous. I mean in the industry is switching over from IGBT to SiC without actually having established a good ground and a good capacity for all these, as I see, and especially the substrate where you look at the number of companies investing and the amount of investment in SiC substrate, it tells you how bad the shortages in SiC substrate.
I agree with you. There's always a bit of change and from supply to oversupply undersupply, but I think breakthroughs in, I mentioned them, but AI SiC are just changing the industry. And this is the story of the semiconductor industry. It recreates itself every few years.
Q:Will the industry status in the previous cycle also affect the industry status in the next cycle?
A:There's no question that Covid drove the demand for a mobile computing way beyond what the industry was ready for. And the shortage, which was both automotive, but consumer, high power consumer computing, was felt all over the world. Your point was, there was a severe shortage, so we are gonna see a severe oversupply. Probably, yes. I think that I can expect, you know, everybody wants to know when is going to be the next crash. In my mind, it's 2025, not that far from now. It means that the subsidies we want to see now, the investment we see will end up with some oversupply. But more than that, I think oversupply is usually when private or public companies invest too much, because they have difficulties to forecast.
Now, we are talking about trying to regionalize or localize the production and all regions want to do that. So, the same way, the US wants to do more manufacturing, China wants to do more manufacturing. India wants to do more manufacturing, Japan, Europe. That will not only be driving oversupply, but that will drive cost. There is no question in my mind that once you start to localize, it's nice, but that means that you need to start to scale down the units of production, because you multiply them all over the world. And that is going to be driving costs. So, I’m not very happy with that to a factor. Deeper shortage is changing the next cycle. And I would say that the next cycle is going to be severely distorted. I’m not saying it's bad or good, SVRI is just trying to help customers understand what will the next cycle will look like.
And what will be the opportunities? I know there will be challenges. But to be honest, they are going to be very strong opportunities, because the demand from post-Covid did not go back to a pre-Covid level, we stepped up our consumption of microchips in the world everywhere, consumer, computing, AI, automotive, Covid boosted , the CAGRs of the industry, and you know being a semiconductor fan, I’m very happy about that.
Q:So we need to find the foundaries and led them to put to produce more AI chips. So maybe the short supply the cycle maybe will continue a few years. Do you believe or something like that?
A:No, I don't believe so. Although, by the way, I’m very comfortable with your impatience, we should have more AI today. I mean, you know my daughters of AI ChatGPT, they just want to be able to use it anytime whenever they want. But so, no, I don't think years. I think the challenge is not so much that we need to build capacity. The challenge is that AI technology is still evolving. For example, today, the shortage of Nvidia AI chips, GPUs is not related to foundry. It's not the fact that TSMC cannot produce enough 5 nanometers microchip. It’s the fact that this chip needs to be advanced package, in advanced packages like CoWoS type. That is today’s bottleneck. That's number one. Number two is that actually, a GPU, Graphic Processing Unit is not the ultimate solution for AI, it's probably the closest we have today, but probably that there are companies working on new design.
And last time I was in Shanghai, actually I met a startup, working on the developing new chips, new concept for AI, if that happens, it means that whatever we've built on GPUs will not be the demand of tomorrow, we have to ramp. So, my point to you is, I love your impatience, I mean I’m also impatient. I want AI all the time, but I think that these technologies not yet stabilized.
I think that although Nvidia is doing a lot of money today, I’m very comfortable with the idea that some of the Chinese startup, AMD, Intel, will definitely help AI match you over time and ramp. I don't think it's a matter of years. But it's probably a matter of 6 months. Last comment is everybody talks about that, the fact that, for example, ChatGPT is not yet stable in terms of performance. Everybody knows that ChatGPT as fluctuations that needs to be fixed. It's a moving target, but not years, I think, months.
Q: So the US government and they will quite a few of economic agencies join the network to institutions, to help build semiconductor workforce. What's your opinion on this phenomenon?
A:Two things. Number one, there's no question，let's take two examples, Korea and USA, let's say for USA in the past, manufacturing was just outsourced to Asia. And so there was no need of so many skilled engineers. By the way, we have a lot of skilled engineers, but these are designers. The fabless companies are massively Americans. That's okay. Now, when we pull back the manufacturing, we need to find these skilled engineers. That's the example of USA, but for example, Korea, which was always has been very strong in semiconductor. Let me give you an example. The recent embargo on technology means that the SK Hynix and Samsung investment in China are at risk. What does it mean? It means that Samsung and SK Hynix need to pull back and ramp up further in Korea the manufacturing, guess what? They did not plan that from a manpower point of view.
So if you look at you mentioned, I think the USA, but if you look at the Korean government, they are extremely active. So, if you look at, for example, Samsung, the amount of activities trying to find and prepare train the workers of the future is massive. Going back to your question. By the way, one of our customers asked to benchmark that, so we actually created for them a benchmark report of all of the activities in China, in Korea, in Japan, in USA, in Europe, of how to ramp up the skilled workforce. I just want to mention few, I think, very nice ideas I’ve seen in the world, you mentioned about universities that's true everywhere, by the way. But in USA, this was driven both by Intel and TSMC, they are now spatial crash courses in semiconductor to people working on vacuum technology, don't to automatically know semiconductor, but with a crash course, you can convert a vacuum engineer into a semiconductor engineer.
One example, second example is, and this is very famous at Samsung. Samsung has asked all their retired engineers to come back and help train, because they don't have the people. And I’m in favor, by the way, I’m not very, very young, but I think that pulling in the retired engineers of the past 5, 10 years to become teachers, mentors, trainers of younger people. That's some fantastic ideas. So, yes, we're going to have shortages of manpower. There are a lot of excellent ideas on the table. Now, I think these ideas have to be customized and localized. So, for example, China will not do exactly what Korea is doing. Japan will not do exactly. But one of our Japanese customers is considering based on our benchmark report, creating some form of training centers and pulling in people to help train these people.
So, yes, no questions. We're going to need more people in the industry. More people is not really the issue, the issue is that they have to be localized and they have to be in nearly all key regions, India, China, Korea, all of these regions are going to need a lot more and some of these regions, Korea is a very strong base, but for example, India has not yet a very strong base. And Japan, to be honest, in Japan, semiconductor is seen as the past. This is not seen as the coolest technology in the world. I mean semiconductor in Japan was cool 20 years ago, today the young engineers don't want to work in semiconductor.
I think preparing the workforce, finding the engineers, motivating the young engineers to get into the semiconductor a business. No question.
Q:What China can learn from this kind of cooperation?
A:Obviously, as I mentioned, China is in a certain position, so I gave you an example. India is pre semiconductor, and Japan is post semiconductor. China refers more to Korea. So, if you look at the cycle of growth in the industry, I think that China is more along the lines of what Korea is doing, which means strong industry growing fast. That's so, I would say that if China wants to learn about preparing the work skilled force, I would definitely recommend looking at what Samsung is doing.
And again, I’ve mentioned the fact that Samsung is pulling in the retirees to do that, but the Korean government launched a massive effort into training. They created a center for training across all universities with support of all the key companies. That means Samsung, SK Hynix, et cetera. I think they signed the memorandum in September last year, and they plan to have their first batch of 400 engineers coming out in September. So for China, I would recommend definitely to look at what is done around Samsung and the Korean government. I know the size of China industry economy is different than Korea, but from finding best known methods, I would definitely recommend that.
Q:They were more focused on with the cooperation with IBM, they were more focused on the GAA so what do you think about that?
A:I want to jump, by the way, I worked for NEC, Nippon Denki shop for 10 years, when NEC was number two semiconductor company, I spent about 10 years working for this Japanese company, and I appreciate the Japanese know how, but the semiconductor industry in terms of manufacturing is actually very good at certain things. One is CMOS sensor. I know you mentioned Sony, but Sony, it doesn't really care about logic. They care about image sensor and they are number one in the world. They managed to defeat Samsung, ST Microelectronics. So, if you look at terms of technologies, I think Sony intimate sense of Kioxia in 3D NAND flash. By the way, I want to correct something. Everybody thinks that Kioxia is a second, third, or 4th in the world. It's actually manufacturing as big as Samsung, people don't realize that, you know, Western Digital and Kioxia are actually the same company when it comes to manufacturing. And they are number one in the world in surf or so.
If you look at Japan, they are two areas where they are really good, image sensor and 3D NAND. I know it's not mainstream object, it's not mainstream foundry, but I just want to remind that if when you use these Apple, iPhone, actually, there's a lot of Sony and Kioxia Japanese microchips inside. So that's number one.
Number two is, yes, it's correct. As everybody else, Japan wants to run back some of the manufacturing in logic, and you are correct. There are two areas of effort. One is 28 nanometers with TSMC and by the way, I just want to remind everybody that 28 nanometer is a sweet spot in the technology node. There's actually the technology which is the cheapest in terms of manufacturing. The second one is 2 nanometers work with IBM, a few things, one is, by the way, I work for TSMC too, so I know that company very well. I build one of their fab in Singapore, so I enjoyed foundry work.
So, one thing, TSMC is working with a number of companies amongst Sony and they are going to be starting ramping production of 20 nanometers in Japan. I don't want to go and discuss government subsidies interventions in that fact. But the fact is simple. TSMC is opening a manufacturing site in Japan, because Japan is a big market for TSMC, when I was building that fab, actually in Singapore, a lot of our customers were Japanese.
Is that really Japan recreating itself? I don't think so. I think that it is pulling in TSMC to supply the needs in Japan of standard technologies. I know, standard technology, 28 nanometers is still advanced, but it's something that TSMC can do very well. So that's number one. Number two is 2 nanometers with IBM, that is a little bit more unusual than the 28 nanometer. And if you look at the latest, and again, I can't disclose our customers, but we are very close to some of these activities.
I mean as we are right. But in this case, what started as a relatively small investment is now turning into a very large investment. I’m actually impressed. I mean a lot of my Japanese friends are going to join that center of excellence at 2 nanometers. Just one comment I want to make is that there's no question that the 2-nanometer effort in Japan wants to compete with TSMC, but they are trying to be part about it. Because to be honest, TSMC is not to crack. It's not easy to compete with TSMC, but they at least have a strategy planning effort to define gaps where they can provide what TSMC maybe will not be able to provide. It's still a difficult area.
But at least I just want to mention that if you look at what they are doing, they are doing a lot of thinking about what can be done and work at the edge of what TSMC can or cannot do. Just don't go ahead with TSMC but work on some of the gaps of what TSMC does not offer. One of the latest is artificial intelligence. I’m not sure if that will stick, but I’m actually appreciate is of that. I'll be back in Japan next month, and I’m sure I'll be involved one way or another.
Q:Maybe that's why they need the co cooperate with the TSMC to build the JSM, because the small things, small pixel size, markets. Nowadays, Samsung, maybe it is. It's the count biggest player in the small pixel size. Market says.</
